San Diego Appraiser Blog

The University of Southern California, Lusk Center for Real Estate has released its 2022 Multifamily Report.  This report includes regional summaries and a 2023 and 2024 apartment market forecast for San Diego.  You may download the file here: USC Apartment Forecast 2023 .

Posted in:General and tagged: Apartments
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on January 2nd, 2023 8:05 PMLeave a Comment

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January 2nd, 2023 7:55 PM

Posted in:General and tagged: Market Trends
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on January 2nd, 2023 7:55 PMLeave a Comment

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January 2nd, 2023 7:09 PM

We are wishing everyone a very Happy New year.  This past year, 2022, proved to be the busiest year our commercial appraisal practice has ever had.  Our commercial appraisal office was only able to maintain our blog located on the Google Blogger platform during this very busy time. Our apologies for not updating this blog sooner. 

Issuing commercial appraisals during and after the pandemic was a challenge.  When the pandemic commenced, commercial transaction volume came to a standstill and was very limited for the first six months.  There was also limited means for forecasting the eventual market recovery.  Typically all of the commercial sectors follow the national economic trends, but with Covid, the entire rule book went out the window.  In late 2020 and 2021, the housing and apartment sector experienced unprecedented value increases.  The San Diego Case Shiller Index exceeded 25% in 2021.  Retail centers and office buildings were all case-by-case appraisals requiring a granular analysis with the valuation depending on the property-specific tenant mix and tenant profiles.  Fast food restaurants with drive through lanes prospered while many family sit-down restaurants closed. Then in 2022, the residential market went flat as interest rates increased.  As the residential market became less active most commercial assets showed gradual improvement and increased occupancy. 

Overall, the San Diego business community and San Diego commercial real estate market showed remarkable resilience.  San Diego commercial property owners, asset management companies, commercial brokers, commercial leasing agents, tenant improvement contractors, and commercial tenants have all been hard at work filling and repositioning properties.  We are so fortunate to have many highly talented individuals in this profession.  The fact that so many San Diego commercial properties experienced successful tenant workouts or were rapidly repositioned has shown this difficult time to be our finest hour.  

Posted in:General and tagged: Commercial Appraiser
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on January 2nd, 2023 7:09 PMLeave a Comment

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The Economist published an article in November:  What a vaccine means for America’s Economy.   If you have not already read this, you can do so here:

As the new quarterly numbers are posting up our appraisal office has noted and concurs with the Economist - that the actual numbers of the broad economic indicators of GDP and Employment indicate much better economic resilience than originally projected by most forecasts earlier in the year and over the summer.    

Posted in:General and tagged: San Diego Economy
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on December 16th, 2020 10:53 AMLeave a Comment

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Posted in:General and tagged: Apartments
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on December 16th, 2020 10:41 AMLeave a Comment

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September 29th, 2020 3:06 PM

Source:  Costar, September, 2020

Even with the Covid-19 turmoil, apartment vacancy in San Diego is not expected to exceed 6%.  In our interviews with apartment managers, they indicate that vacancy and turn over issues are specific to the market area and property, with the coastal areas experiencing minimal if any impact.  The brokerage and lending communities are still adjusting and adapting to the rent control measure that took effect in January of 2020 that limits annual rent increases to 5% plus local inflation (7.2% for San Diego in 2020).  Most apartment sales marketing flyers and offering documents still look to rents on turnover.  While apartment appraisers now must look to upward trended rents and estimate that probable turnover rates for apartment properties.  Apartment construction costs in San Diego County have been ranging from $270.00 to $300.00 per square foot for replacement costs, which means higher apartment insurance premiums or risking being under-insured should anything happen to your property.  Apartment management fees are still ranging from 7% to 8% for most properties.  Apartment management fees have not rolled back despite the substantial rental increases over the past few years. 

Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on September 29th, 2020 3:06 PMLeave a Comment

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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 2020 Monetary Policy Report. This report includes a very detailed assessment of the economy, the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, and projections based on information from June, 2020.  


Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on July 5th, 2020 4:10 PMLeave a Comment

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The Congressional Budget Office Has Released an Economic Outlook Update as of July, 2020. CongressionalBudgetOfficeEconomicOutlookUpdate2020.pdf

Posted in:Market Trends and tagged: Economic Forecast
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on July 4th, 2020 2:44 PMLeave a Comment

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Many apartment and commercial property owners have been waiting to learn if the eviction moratorium will be lifted.   Today the City of San Diego approved an extension of this moratorium until the end of September of 2020.   Our local NBC news has reported on this here: San Diego Apartment Moratorium 

Our office has been tracking and analyzing apartment rents and to date has yet to see significant discounting of apartment rents in most parts of the County.  Some units appear to be having longer marketing times.   This is happening because tenants are less likely to move and landlords are being very cautious about tenant screening at this time.  We have reviewed at least one national forecast that is projecting a 10% decline in rents by the end of 2020.  The SDSU college area and El Cajon appear to have been the most impacted so far, with students gone there is a higher inventory of one-bedroom units available.  

Posted in:General and tagged: Apartments
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on June 30th, 2020 5:53 PMLeave a Comment

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June 1st, 2020 12:23 AM
Forbes Magazine is reporting on the revisions to the 2020 Realtor's forecast.
Link to article: Revised 2020 Forecast

Posted in:General and tagged: Market Trends
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on June 1st, 2020 12:23 AMLeave a Comment

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May 31st, 2020 11:45 PM

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Costar is predicting a 10% decline in apartment rents in San Diego by the end of 2020 in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. Link to recent apartment article:  Union-Tribune Apartment Article   

Posted in:General and tagged: Apartments
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on May 31st, 2020 11:45 PMLeave a Comment

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August 29th, 2019 10:03 AM

The Southern California Rental Housing Association released its apartment rent and vacancy survey this past month.  The publication reported that the City of San Diego apartment vacancy rate was at 4.3%, which is up from the same time in 2018, when the rate was 2.9%.   It should be noted that apartment vacancy rates are seasonal tend to be lower in the spring and higher going into the fall.  The average City of San Diego one-bedroom apartment rents were reported at $1,292, two-bedroom units at $1,850, and three-bedroom units at $2,407 per month.  The report noted that apartment occupancy was more evenly distributed county wide relative to the past, as all apartment property owners are benefitting from this period of very strong demand and limited market inventory.   

Posted in:Market Trends and tagged: Multi-Family
Posted by Appraiser Chandos Pacific on August 29th, 2019 10:03 AMLeave a Comment

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November 29th, 2018 1:12 PM

There has been very significant upward pressure on apartment rents throughout San Diego County through 2018.  San Diego Apartment rental rates have increased approximately 6%, per year on a compounded basis.  Month-to-month apartment tenants typically pay rents that are approximately 10% higher than a tenant that commits to a full year lease.  Apartment managers have commenced very high tenant screening standards, are requiring higher deposits, proof of apartment insurance, annual walk-through inspections, and stricter lease terms. The high cost of residing in San Diego has caused an increase in out-migration of some residents.  However, the demand for rentals still far exceeds the supply.


According to Marcus and Millichap, developers are underway with 7,800 apartments with delivery dates extending into 2021.  More than 40 percent of this pipeline will be finalized in the next three quarters.  Most of these new multi-family projects are high end and near the urban core.  

Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on November 29th, 2018 1:12 PMLeave a Comment

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2015 Is Looking Bright For The San Diego Economy

The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose a strong 1.3 percent in November and followed it with a solid 0.8 percent gain in December.  

Both months featured big positive moves in initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising and gains in all the other components except for building permits.  November benefited from a sharp increase in local stocks prices and a smaller drop in building permits.  

With the gains in November and December, the USD Index has increased for seven consecutive months, and November’s gain was the largest monthly gain since February 2011.  San Diego’s economy did well in 2014, with jobs increasing by about 34,000 (before revisions).  

With the strong uptrend in the indicators and with most of them positive, the forecast is for continued growth in the local economy at least through the end of 2015.  The forecast for the year ahead is for job growth in the 35,000 to 40,000 range, which will drive the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate below 5 percent.  Sectors expected to do well are professional, scientific, and technical services, health care, and leisure and hospitality.   

Highlights:  A bad year for residential units authorized by building permits ended with a string of nine straight monthly declines and drops in 11 of the 12 months of 2014.  For the year as a whole, residential units authorized fell by 17 percent.  Whereas multi-family units led the gains in this component in recent years, they were responsible for much of 2014 losses.  Multi-family units authorized were down almost 23 percent for the year, while single-family units were down less than 4 percent. . . Both initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising were extremely strong in November and December.  

This strength on both sides of the labor market resulted in the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate falling to 5.6 percent in December, which was down from 5.9 percent in November and from 6.9 percent in December 2013.  It was the county’s lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in six and a half years (since June 2008).  

Although the gain was not large, consumer confidence increased for the 11th consecutive month in December.  Good news in the labor market and falling gas prices likely contributed to the improved outlook by consumers. . . 2014 was a good year for local stock prices, which gained 9.20 percent.  By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite Index were up 7.52 percent, 11.39 percent, and 13.42 percent respectively. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators was up in 11 of the 12 months of 2014 and was unchanged in the other month.  After a weather-influenced decline in the first quarter, GDP growth has been strong, with the third estimate for the third quarter coming in at a robust 5.0 percent, which follows strong growth of 4.6 percent for the second quarter.  

December’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 132.4, up from November’s reading of 131.4.  Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators reduced the previously reported Index levels for July and August and the previously reported change for October from +0.6 percent to +0.5 percent.  For revisions to the previously reported values for the Index and for the individual components, please visit the Website address given above.  

Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on February 9th, 2015 1:02 PMLeave a Comment

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Current 2014 population estimates published by the Department of Finance are available at the link below, for all municipalities in the State of California including San Diego, Imperial, Riverside, and Orange County. 

Current California Population Data By City: 

This report provides revised population estimates as of January 1, 2013 and provisional population estimates as of January 1, 2014 for the state, counties, and cities and includes a calculation of annual percent change. These population estimates incorporate 2010 census counts. 

The methodology for the City and Unincorporated Area Estimates is based on housing units. The HUM is used to estimate total and occupied housing units, household size, household population, and group quarters population. Housing units are estimated by adding new construction and annexations and subtracting demolitions, and adjusting for units lost or gained by conversions. Annual housing unit change data are supplied by local jurisdictions and the U.S. Census Bureau. Occupied housing units are estimated by applying a derived civilian vacancy rate, based on 2010 benchmark data, to the estimated civilian housing units. Adjustments to census vacancy rates are made periodically. Exact data on foreclosures or other housing market indicators are not available to adjust vacancy rates. Military occupied housing units are added to civilian occupied housing units to calculate total occupied housing units. Military surveys are used to track military changes including base realignments and closures. Household population estimates are derived by multiplying the number of occupied housing units by the current persons per household. The persons per household estimates are based on 2010 census benchmark data and are adjusted by raking the current county population series into these estimates. The group quarters population is based on the Census Bureau’s 2010 SF1 File counts on group quarters and annually adjusted using reported changes for group quarters by state, federal, and local agencies. The household and group quarters populations are summed to produce the initial city population estimates. These estimates are aligned to the county estimates described below.

Source:  State of California, Department of Finance, E-1 Population Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State with Annual Percent Change — January 1, 2013 and 2014. Sacramento, California, May 2014. 

Posted in:Economy and tagged: San Diego Population
Posted by Jennifer L. Chandos on June 24th, 2014 10:41 AMLeave a Comment

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